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November 16, 2003

Tentative Medicare Agreement

As they say "the devil is in the details". We'll have to see over the next few weeks exactly what the details are. Before going over some of the reported details, here is some of the background...

While there are many in Congress who believe a prescription benefit is needed for seniors, the debate has been driven largely by politics. The move to add benefits to Medicare started in the late 1990's, in preparation for the 2000 elections and electoral college mathmatics. Just a few states control a large percentage of the electoral college votes and in almost every state the winner gets all of that state's votes. California and New York were believed to be solid for the Democratic candidate and Texas was considered to be solid for the Republican candidate. Other larger states were in varying degrees of "play" but Florida was considered, from very early on, to be the key state. In order for a party to win, it was believed that they would have to win Florida.

The vote in Florida was expected to be close. The Republican's were heavily favored by the growing Cuban-American community and the state's growing elderly population leaned heavily toward the Democrats. Expanding Medicare benefits was considered a prime way to court enough votes to swing the state one way or the other. By the time of the hotly debated election, legislation had not been passed and neither party did a very effective job of blaming the other side for the failure to pass a bill. Of course, nobody could have predicted what eventually happend in Florida.

Fast forward to today. As the population ages and with the two parties being so close to each other in voter support, the elderly are considered one of the most important voting blocks. So for the past year the two parties have been jockying for who would get the most credit should the bill pass and who would get the most blame should the bill fail. Complicating the situation is the growing elderly population and the fast-growing costs of Medicare and Social Security. Current estimates have Medicare and Social Security taking up 80% of the federal budget by 2030. Expanding benefits would increase these costs but, at the moment, there is very little voter concern.

With both parties supporting the prescription benefit, the distinction between the two became the scope of the prescription benefit. The Democrats supporting full prescription coverage for all seniors and the Republicans backing prescription benefits for only those with lower incomes, not the wealthy. (The elderly are the wealthiest demographic in the country.)

The Medicare bills that passed the House and Senate had some important differences that had to be ironed out in the conference committee. This is where this bill has stalled for past several weeks. At an impass, the Republicans on the committee took the unusual step of meeting without the Democrats to create a proposal that would meet with the approval of the two key Democrats on the committee - the very-liberal Max Baucus and the very-conservative John Breaux. It worked and now there is a tentative agreement, though broad support is still in doubt with Ted Kennedy and Tom Dascle now arguing that it is a very bad bill for seniors.

Here's the reported details:

All seniors get a 15% discount on prescriptions. In an attempt to provide some competition to keep costs down private insurance companies can provide some of the services now only provided by the government. More money will be routed to rural areas. The reimportation of drugs will still be banned. Employers will be subsidized to minimize the number of seniors who lose their private insurance.

Perhaps the most important portion of the bill for the Huntington's Disease community is a new tax break for those with high-deductible insurance policies (not limited to the elderly).

At the moment, this bill sounds like a positive for HD community. The tax break will save individuals hundreds of dollars a year and this isn't likely to reduce the amount of money that pharmaceutical companies will spend on badly-needed new drug research. For those HD families who rely on Medicare, they should also come out ahead.

Of course, that is based on what is being reported. Expect this bill to get full approval and to be signed by the President. Until then, you'll see a lot of jockying in the media as each party seeks to maximize their position while demonizing the other side. This is just the beginning to what is going to be an ugly election year.

Posted by Dave at November 16, 2003 09:40 AM

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